Patrick Mahomes has never faced the last ranked scoring defense at any point in his career. He will tonight, against the Denver Broncos.
Should be an easy win and cover for the Chiefs, right? That’s our confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias: People’s tendency to process information by looking for, or interpreting, information that is consistent with their existing beliefs.
I don’t know what’s actually going to happen, but in order to not fall into a trap, let’s look at something that was expected to succeed but didn’t. This one actually comes out of Bronco country:
“Bottled water is the fastest-growing beverage category in America,''said John Recca, the company's brand developmwent manager.
Coors, a well-known beer company, decided to venture into the bottled water industry in 1990 with a product called Coors Rocky Mountain Sparkling Water. The water was made with the very same water that had gone into every can of Coors for 50 years.
It was available in flavors Original, Cherry, and Lemon-Lime.
They pulled the waters just two years after launch, losing all chance of tapping into one of the fastest-growing beverage segments in the industry and becoming one of the bigger product fails of all time.
Coors does still produce a kind of water. They just call it Coors Light.
Hydration is important for athletes, so it’s surprising you don’t see them on the sidelines with milk. Milk has a higher rating on the hydration index than water.
If you are drinking water, it’s important not to drink too much. Over the last decade, there have been at least 15 cases of athletes who have died from over-hydration during sporting events.
Too much fluid consumption can cause serious health issues by diluting the sodium in the blood, which creates a swelling of the brain and lungs.
That doesn’t mean to stay away completely. Even mild dehydration — about 1.5% loss in normal water volume — can affect your disposition, energy level, and ability to concentrate.
The best way to know if you’re hydrated or not is to use a pee-chart similar to what Todd Herman used at the University of Texas:
The Texas football coach said they consistently check the urine of players and called out players who are dehydrated in front of the team.
A player who Herman called out, who now plays for the Broncos, is P.J. Locke.
Herman found Locke’s Gatorade bottle, accidentally left behind in the players’ lounge. He texted a photo to Locke and defensive backs coach Jason Washington.
Herman: ‘What is your water bottle doing not in your hand?”
Locke: “Hahaha, yeah my bad, I’ve been looking for that.”
“So, OK, this kid doesn’t get it,” Herman concluded.
Herman called a 4 a.m. meeting the next day to rip into Locke and Washington to their faces. The message, as he explains it: “This is vitally important to what we do around here. If I’m gonna tell you it’s vitally important and you’re not gonna adhere to what’s required of you, that’s called defiance.”
For Locke, that act of defiance also required “air raids” (up-downs every 5 yards for 200 yards) and a shift cleaning Texas’ weight room with a rag and a bottle of 409.
Locke learned his lesson. He started wearing the water bottle around his neck, using a shoelace to fashion a necklace.
If he plays tonight, just know he’s probably hydrated.
Numbers
38: Devon Achane has 460 rushing yards on 38 carries this season.
8: Sauce Gardner is currently tied for the league lead with 8 missed tackles.
.87: The Patriots are scoring .87 points per drive It's like they've turned every defense they face into the 2000 Ravens (.79 points per drive allowed)
3.15 [TRIVIA]: Which QB has the longest average time to throw (3.15 seconds) of any QB in the NFL this season?
Quotes
“A majority of our employees are working in fear.”
COO of the Arizona Cardinals, Ron Minegar
“Thank you to everyone who has been saying prayers for my family and their safety. It’s been a scary, anxiety filled several days but my parents are headed home safely. So many people to thank but I know this, God is good.”
Detroit Lions LB Alex Anzalone announced his family is headed home safe after being stuck in Israel amidst a violent conflict.
“He was one of my favorite players I evaluated in the draft. ... Since then it's been positive after positive outside of driving a little fast one time. My expectation is we hit the gas with Jordan this weekend. No pun intended."
Kevin O'Connell on Jordan Addison
“I never thought of him as just a bridge or a stop gap or whatever. It was this narrative that he was just a bridge, and I always thought that was kind of a lazy narrative and a big [example] of recency bias.”
Lions GM Brad Holmes on Jared Goff
Ad
Dollar Flight Club is offering their Lifetime Membership for $129 (usually $1,690) for the next 24 hours. Lifetime Members get up to 90% off all flights for life! Fly roundtrip to Paris from $320, Hawaii from $197, and more. Get 93% off lifetime or try for free now.
Picks
Thursday, 10/12 @ 8:20pm
Broncos (+11) at Chiefs (U47)
The Broncos have 51% of the bets and 67% of the money (+16% differential)
The Under has 59% of the bets and 87% of the money (+28% differential)
According to the National Weather Service, the latest forecast for Broncos vs. Chiefs calls for 17-22 mph winds at Arrowhead Stadium, with gusts up to 38 mph also possible. This total has already dipped from 51 to 47.5 and don't be surprised to see it continue to drop before kickoff.
Record
ATS: 15-13 (+1.82)
O/U: 7-6 (+0.91)
Highlights
Bijan slow mo sky cam replay
A called direct snap to the RB... with the QB under center
Drake London with the lefty pass for a first down!
Trivia
Russell Wilson per @ZebraSports. Against the Jets, Wilson took an average of 3.47 seconds to throw the ball, which was the longest average of any QB in a single game this year.