or be afraid at the change you made
Week 16! Saturday 🎄
It’s Christmas time, which means it’s been alost exact two years ago when John Lynch, the general manager of the San Francisco 49ers, tweeted out:
The liked tweet was a 49ers fan suggesting that the team should leave Garoppolo in Nashville.
Doing a quick comparison…
EPA
Expected Points Added (EPA) is a commonly used advanced statistic in football. In short, this stat measures how well a team performs compared to their expectation on a play-by-play basis. EPA and EPA per Play, along with other stats using EPA, can help us evaluate team and player performance.
Jimmy G with CMC (weeks 7-13 2022): 0.26
Purdy this year: 0.39
Difference is about as big as this year’s difference between Mahomes & Gardner Minshew. I keep seeing people say Jimmy G was similarly efficient with CMC and he...wasn’t?
Cam Newton says Purdy, Tagovailoa, Prescott and Goff are “game managers” not “difference makers.”
Mike Vick on the other hand believes Brock Purdy is NOT just a game manager, but a GAME CHANGER for the 49ers.
Kyle Hamilton's impressions of Brock Purdy: "Word around the league is he's a system quarterback, and that's just not true from what I've seen."
Pro-Football reference runs a table that compares a player's season production to the league average production that year. This allows us to compare players across eras.
Here are Brock Purdy's current Era-Adjusted Rates & Where they stand historically:
Here is a comparison between Brock Purdy's current season and recent MVP QBs;
Obviously not all Lamar Jackson's value is as a passer. He is on pace for 900 Rush Yds & 6 Rush TDs. But not only is Brock Purdy having the greatest QB production this season, he is having one of the best seasons of any recent MVP. Draft status bias is a real thing.
Where do you land on the game manager declaration? Leave a comment and discuss with other readers:
Numbers with Bet Openly
If you're betting, it doesn't make sense not to use Bet Openly.
Rather than bet "against" a book, they set you up with people taking the opposite side.
The benefit: rather than paying 10% tax to the book (-110) you "pay" 1% (-101).
14: The Eagles have only 14 dropbacks all season that are not from the shotgun, and only 12 attempts over the middle off play action all season.
147: In 2012, Calvin Johnson set the NFL single season record with 1,964 receiving yards. His QB was Matthew Stafford.
In 2021, Cooper Kupp had the second most receiving yards in a single season in NFL history with 1,947. His QB was - and still is - Matthew Stafford.
Puka Nacua now needs just 147 yards in his final two games to set the record for most receiving yards by a rookie in NFL history. His QB is Matthew Stafford.
58: Mason Rudolph will become the 58th starting quarterback in the NFL this season
5 [TRIVIA]: Including acting coaches, five different head coaches named Mike have won playoff games more recently than Mike Tomlin. How many can you name?
Quotes
“Financially, I wouldn’t be able to cover that right now.”
Brock Purdy on Christian McCaffrey buying all the 49ers’ offensive players golf club bags for Christmas
“I knew something was probably wrong, but I mean, that’s kind of football. You play through pain and then it usually hurts a little more after the game.”
Luke Musgrave on finishing game with lacerated kidney
“I think it’s the pure grace of God that I was able to get up and walk.”
Michael Pittman Jr after his brutal hit in the Steelers game
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Picks
Saturday, 12/23 @ 4:30pm
Bengals at Steelers U38
The Under has 68% of the bets and 72% of the money: +4% differential
Saturday, 12/23 @ 8pm
Bills at Chargers U44
The Under has 41% of the bets and 51% of the money: +10% differential
Record
ATS: 42-42-4 (-3.78u)
O/U: 29-34-3 (-7.61)
Highlights
Trivia
Mike Mularkey - 2018 with the Titans
Mike Zimmer - One win each in 2018 and 2020 with the Vikings
Mike Vrabel - Two wins in 2020 with the Titans
Mike Priefer - Coached the Browns to a victory against the Steelers in 2021 as acting head coach while Kevin Stefanski had COVID
Mike McCarthy - 2023 with the Cowboys