with its words of a life that could almost be true
Week 18!
I stumbled across a great Reddit thread of “what if” players.
Josh Gordon. His second year in the league: 1,646 yds rec (in 14 games) at age 22 with Brian Hoyer at QB.
If he played 16 games at 117ypg he would have hit 1900 yds. Most elite receivers in the 2010s had a 10-15ypg increase with improved QB play. Gordon would not only have hit 2000 yards, he would racked up 2100+ yards.
That season he had back to back 200 yard receiving games…it has never happened before or since.
He had 1000 yards in five games –that’s the fastest any player has ever hit 1000 yards.
Aldon Smith. Second most rookie sacks all time, most sacks in first 2 years all time, fastest to 40 sacks all time, then career over.
Chris Borland played only one season in the NFL (2014) with the San Francisco 49ers before retiring, citing concerns about long-term brain health. Here are his stats for that season:
Games Played: 14
Total Tackles: 107
Solo Tackles: 84
Assists: 23
Sacks: 1
Interceptions: 2
Pass Deflections: 5
Forced Fumbles: 1
Jimmy Smith (WR). Before turning 27 years old he had 288 yards. By the end of his career he had 12,287 yards
Robert Edwards. Blew his knee out during the Rookie Pro Bowl after rushing for 1,1000 yards and scoring 12 total touchdowns as a rookie. He was ready to be a top RB for years.
He was the reason they stopped the flag football game.
Although emergency surgery was performed that evening in Hawaii, 13 days elapsed before the swelling subsided to the extent that the damage could be repaired.
The surgeon who operated on Edwards in Hawaii called the Patriots' team doctor, who called his brother, the chief of vascular surgery at Stanford, and they had a three-way call during the initial surgery that saved Edwards' foot from amputation.
One of the doctors said that he saved from amputation by about ten minutes. Another doctor said that it looked like a hand grenade had gone off inside of Edwards' knee.
He required six months of bed rest, spending 23 hours a day in bed, during which time he could not feel his foot. Then he had shock treatment to stimulate nerve growth, and eventually got the feeling back.
It was eight months before he could walk. But within a year, he was able to begin speed training and told the Patriots he would participate in their offseason training program.
Since the beach game was not an official NFL event, but a made for TV filler event by an adjunct with obscure ties to the official event, the league had no insurance policy on its participants and refused to pay any compensation.
The Patriots, who were in cap hell, were expected by most to waive Edwards. However they kept him throughout his 3 year rehabilitation phase before waiving him on completion of his rehabilitation.
He signed for Miami a year later and did play a few snaps, scoring a TD on his debut, but his career fizzled out shortly thereafter.
There is a butterfly effect to all of this…
Next season in 1999, without their young stud RB, the Pats finish 8-8, barely missing out on the playoffs.
New England fires Pete Carroll.
Carroll is replaced by Bill Belichick.
Patriots draft Tom Brady.
Carroll goes to USC to be the Trojans head coach.
The Patriots win multiple Super Bowls.
USC wins multiple national championships.
Carroll goes to the Seahawks.
Seahawks win a Super Bowl.
The Patriots defeat Carroll’s Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX.
In 1999, the Pats finished 23rd in rushing. With a healthy Edwards, there is a good chance the Patriots win at least an extra 1-2 games, securing a playoff spot and saving Carroll’s job. If that happens, who knows where Belichick ends up? Who knows where Brady ends up? Who knows who’s coaching USC in the 2000s? And who the hell knows how things play out over the last two decades?
Just a cautionary tale and a reminder to those who get annoyed at college kids opting out of Bowl games.
Numbers with Bet Openly
42: This season, Baker Mayfield’s total of 42 touchdowns has only ever been matched by 11 QBs- Manning, Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Marino, Brees, Allen, MVP Cam Newton, Burrow, Jackson, and Andrew Luck. Still one more game to play, 3 TDs from Brady’s franchise record
9: Saquon Barkley is now the ninth running back in NFL history to go over 2,000 rushing yards in a season.
42: With their season on the line, the Colts have surrendered 42 points to the Giants, who came in averaging an NFL-worst 14.3 points per game.
1999 [TRIVIA]: Bailey Zappe will start at quarterback for the Browns today. Since 1999, how many quarterbacks, including Bailey Zappe, have started at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns?
Quotes
"Keep doing the job you're doing this year."
Eagles fan to Cowboys owner, Jerry Jones
"It took this long? Shit, I thought he was MVP 5 games ago."
Bills WR Keon Coleman postgame if he thought Sunday stamped Josh Allen's MVP case
“I mean, I’d rather upset them and mess up their playoff hopes and if the sack title comes along with that, great.”
Myles Garrett would rather mess up Ravens’ division title hopes than win sack title
“There’s a reason why they’re fans … in the long end, they’re not qualified to do what Mayo’s doing. They’re fans. I appreciate them at times, but sometimes they just gotta know their place and understand it’s a work in progress.”
Patriots linebacker, Jahlani Tavai, on booing fans
Picks
Saturday, 1/4 at 4:30 pm
Browns +20.5 at Ravens U41.5
Browns' Offensive Struggles:
Scored a total of 16 points in three games with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback (not per game—16 points combined).
Last passing touchdown occurred in Week 14 with Jameis Winston.
All recent touchdowns have come from running back Jerome Ford, who is questionable this week.
Concerns Against Baltimore:
Browns could be held to single digits against a motivated Ravens team.
Baltimore has strong incentives to win and control the game.
Scoring and Game Pace Predictions:
For the total to go over, the Ravens would need to score in the 30s.
Baltimore is unlikely to push the pace in a blowout scenario.
Baltimore's Strategy:
Expected to establish an early lead, around 21 points, before slowing down in the second half.
If the Ravens ease off, it will be challenging for the total score to exceed 40 points.
Saturday, 1/4 at 8 pm
Bengals (-2.5) at Steelers
Pittsburgh's Struggles:
Lost three consecutive games, limping into the playoffs.
Passing game has significantly declined over the past three games:
Ranked 27th in yards per attempt.
Offensive line has allowed 10 sacks.
Russell Wilson’s performance issues:
Throwing to his first read only 51.1% of the time since Week 15.
Receivers failing to create separation.
Wilson lacks trust and anticipation in decision-making.
Bengals' Offensive Strengths:
Joe Burrow playing at the highest level of his career.
Favorable matchup for Burrow against a struggling Pittsburgh defense.
Steelers rank 27th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed over the past six weeks.
Only the Panthers have allowed more passing touchdowns during that span.
Defensive Comparisons:
Bengals' pass defense ranks sixth-best in adjusted net yards per attempt allowed over the past six weeks.
Steelers' pass defense is significantly weaker in the same metric.
Expectations for Saturday Night:
Mike Tomlin unlikely to rest key players despite Baltimore securing the No. 3 seed earlier in the day.
Steelers face a tough challenge defending Joe Burrow, the league's hottest passer.
Record
ATS:42-52-4 (-13.78u)
O/U: 49-39-2 (+5.59u)
Highlights
ATL vs WAS - Michael Penix Jr TD pass to Kyle Pitts
Duck + blocked punt
Aaron Rodgers gets picked off by Christian Benford. Rodgers also gets called for unnecessary roughness after the play for shoving Benford out of bounds.
What Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell tells Sam Darnold before he goes into the huddle. This is pretty cool.